Today’s plan
Confluence — only tested pillars score; context is shown, not counted
Stand aside
Event risk
What would change the call
Open book
The price of money
What moved gold — rates, the dollar, and everything else
Gold’s sensitivity to real yields, rolling 250 days
The levels picture — gold and the 10-year real yield since 2006
Two panels on one time axis rather than one chart with two scales. Real yield is drawn inverted: when the lines diverge, gold is ignoring its classic opportunity cost.
What gold is trading with — 60-day correlation of daily moves
Gold in the currencies of its buyers
Relative value
The physical market
Futures carry against the Treasury curve — the implied lease rate
Where Asia pays up — local price over London
Shanghai gold over London, %
Shanghai silver vs import parity, %
Mumbai gold over London, duty included, %
Charts and levels
Drag to pan; pinch, or drag either axis, to zoom; double-click an axis to reset. The mouse wheel scrolls the page.
Positioning and volatility
Implied against realised — GVZ and gold’s 20-day realised volatility
Volatility across the complex
Rhythm — who trades gold, and when
Cumulative gold return by trading session
Average return by hour of the day (UTC)
Gold by calendar month since 1971
Silver by calendar month since 1971
Flows and fundamentals
Ledger
Calendar, evidence, doctrine and the contracts — the reference half of the desk.